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Oscar Gamble: Your 2019 Academy Awards gambling guide is here

Vanyaland presents a handy breakdown on betting on this weekend's Oscars, for both fun and profit

Academy Awards
AMPAS/ABC

It's that time again, everyone: the 91st Academy Awards are upon us, and they'll take place on Sunday (February 24) at 8 p.m., airing, once again, on ABC. This has been a particularly bad year for the awards show, what with the Academy attempting to shear time off the broadcast or the total and utter failure on the behalf of the Academy to find a host for the show, so it's becoming clearer and clear that the purpose of the Oscars is less about honoring artistry and way more about ratings and, you guessed it, money. So let's treat this awards ceremony with the respect it deserves -- which is to say not very much if those who put it on this little for it -- and do a deep dive into the gambling prospects for this year's Oscars.


We've taken our odds from bwin, a U.K.-based online sportsbook, and they're just meant, mainly, to read the field, though we have included some advice if you'd like to place some bets. Don't try and do this at your local casino, as most casinos throughout the country are prohibited from gambling on non-sports events, especially those in Nevada (we're willing to wager that this will change as gambling laws become more liberal nationwide). We've got most of the major categories here (though a few we've left off simply because they're not as interesting gambling-wise), and we were a bit surprised by the odds here. It's not too far removed from joining your office Oscar pool, and you can win categories without having to worry about Dave, who somehow has seen all of the shorts, from totally wrecking the curve.

A quick explanation of the numbers: They're presented in what's called "American Odds," where the favorite is represented by a negative number and the underdogs are represented by positive (without any impact by a point spread), which is a bit weird if you haven't bet on anything before. It's very easy to understand, though: a negative number represents how much money you would have to bet in order to win $100, and a positive represents how much you would win on a $100 bet. So when bwin says that Spider-Verse is -2000 to win the Best Animated Feature Film Oscar, that means you'd have to bet two grand in order to win a cool Benjamin. If Isle of Dogs were to upset in that category and you bet $100 on it, you'd win $1200. The reason they feel comfortable offering those odds is that it's probably not going to, so always keep that in mind.

Hell, even if you don't bet, sportsbooks are a solid predictor of what's going to go down on Sunday night, given that those books really don't like to lose money. And with that, we'll head to the categories after a word from the patron saint of Oscar gambling, Oscar Gamble:

Here are the nominees:

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Best Picture

The Favorite: Roma (-238)
The Contenders: Green Book (+275), The Favourite (+2000), Black Panther (+2500), BlackKkKlansman (+2500), Bohemian Rhapsody (+2500)
The Long Shots: A Star is Born (+6600), Vice (+15000)

Advice: Now here’s where things get super interesting. Most of the under +5000s have some sort of award for Best Picture from one of the guilds or from another awards body. Green Book, which is bad and this year’s Oscars co-villain, was what we had assumed was the favorite here (and at +275, you’ll more than triple your money if you win what seems to be a likely thing), but Roma’s gaining traction, and a fair number of critics and sportsbooks seem absolutely certain that it’s going to win on Sunday.

But let’s look at a few other possibilities. Let’s say Disney’s success this year with Black Panther — a great movie and a true-blue box office titan — is able to propel it past Academy biases about superhero movies and claim the Best Picture throne; or that everybody comes to their senses and realizes that Spike Lee is fucking dope, and that BlacKkKlansman is a good movie, and that they should really give him an Oscar; or that the Academy collectively decides to eat crayons and destroy every ounce of clout they have in order to award an alleged sexual predator for butchering the legacy of one of our greatest vocalists: all of those seemingly-likely options would pay out handsomely. A $5 bet on one of those out-there potential winners would net you a cool $130, which is more than enough to cover an entire evening’s worth of losers. Hell, it might even make you feel better about the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences deciding that Bohemian Rhapsody is on par with The Godfather.

At these current odds, and if you really believe that Roma isn’t going to win Best Picture, we’d recommend putting down three $5 bets, if you have the money and are responsible enough to gamble: one on Green Book and two on anything in the +2000-+2500 range. We’d say Black Panther (because Disney) and Bohemian Rhapsody (because Oscar voters might be bad!). You’ll still make your money back if Green Book wins, and you’ll have to the potential to win quite a bit if you’re right.

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