The Oscars ceremony is the rare annual event that brings together film nerds, fashionistas, and degenerate gamblers. Much like the Super Bowl and presidential elections, it’s super helpful to look at betting markets when trying to figure out who will win a given competition. While FiveThirtyEight may be looking at other ceremonies to guess at a winner, we’re looking at the bookies. We’re using the lines from Sportsbook.ag, which we’re completely unaffiliated with, and adding our own analysis (and wishful thinking) to the mix. Here are the lines that may decide your Oscar pool this year in advance of Sunday's 89th Academy Awards in Los Angeles.
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Dev Patel, Lion
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Vegas Favorite: Ali (1/12). This category is the best place for the older and younger Academy members to unite and give Moonlight an honorary award as a conscience salve, as Ali’s performance is one of the true universal points of critical consensus in a picture that is pretty much the standard-bearer for critical acclaim. No one else comes close, frankly, and outside of La La Land and Viola Davis, Ali has the best odds of any nominated person or film to win an award.
Dark Horse: Bridges (20/1). He’s a prior winner in a pretty damn good Best Picture Nominee (who is also probably the reason Hell or High Water got a nod in the first place), and plays well to the older Academy members. Everyone talked about him getting a nom back when Moonlight was but a name on the NYFF program, and this might be his chance to get out in front of it. We don’t think that’s going to be the case, though. None of the other nominees are great fits — Michael Shannon’s great but kind of an esoteric choice, Patel is only here because he didn’t get a Best Actor nod, and Lucas Hedges is fantastic but is a little overshadowed by his co-stars.
