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Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (+1400)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (+2500)
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (+1600)
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-3300)
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (+3300)
Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour. Our boy Sid Vicious is one of the biggest favorites in the entire contest, so barriers of prosthetics and Cigars and whisky have been put between him and the rest of the nominees. Let’s put it in betting terms: a $1 bet would net you a whopping $0.03 in prize money, so you’d probably make more money finding a nickel in your old jeans than putting money down on Oldman. You’d have to be truly deluded about your own luck to bet on anybody else, but that’s not going to stop us.
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) or Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out). We love Chalamet’s performance in Call Me By Your Name so much, and we would want him to win something for his work in a prestige picture. But Kaluuya is one of the rare nominees to come from the world of “genre” movies and especially so for his work in a horror movie of all things, so we’re pulling for him all of the way.
Should Have Been Nominated: Andy Serkis, War for the Planet of the Apes. Serkis will probably receive some sort of honorary award down the line once the Academy realizes their mistake in never nominating the man behind the most iconic masks of the past twenty years, but they especially missed out on a chance to honor him for his final work in the oddest of blockbuster franchises.
Dark Horses: First things first, if you bet on Denzel, there are Gambling support groups all throughout the nation willing to help you, and you should look them up. Oldman’s pretty much a lock here, having Hoover’ed up all of the awards prior to it, but hey, if Get Out looks to be having itself a night, you never know what will happen. And only a fool would count out Day-Lewis, especially given how strong his work is in Phantom Thread. Still, it’s hard to see this going any other way, but we’d place wagers on Kaluuya. You never know how these preferential ballots work these days.
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