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Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (+2000)
Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-500)
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (+2500)
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+350)
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (+3300)
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya. This is the “most” rule (being the old adage that one can predict an Oscar winner out of the nominees by changing the “best” in the Award’s title to “most” and evaluating as such) put into full effect. Janney’s deadpan has never been used to such dramatic effect, and even the dumbest of Academy viewers will appreciate her relationship with her tiny parrot. She’s less of a lock than Rockwell for whatever reason, but it would be dumb and irresponsible to bet against her.
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) or Mary J. Blige (Mudbound). Metcalf and Blige are both utterly fantastic, and deserve honors more prestigious than any earthly body can provide them with.
Should Have Been Nominated: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip. Hers was the best comedic big-screen debut in recent memory, and if the Academy weren’t such shitheads about comedies, you’d probably see her up here in the nominations along with The Big Sick‘s Holly Hunter.
Dark Horses: Look, Laurie Metcalf is the only person who even stands a chance at stopping the Janney train at the station, but this is a category we’d recommend you stay away from. If you really want to take a chance, maybe bet on Blige, who is representing the vastly underrated Mudbound, and it would be wonderful if she won.
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