The Oscars ceremony is the rare annual event that brings together film nerds, fashionistas, and degenerate gamblers. Much like the Super Bowl and presidential elections, it’s super helpful to look at betting markets when trying to figure out who will win a given competition. While FiveThirtyEight may be looking at other ceremonies to guess at a winner, we’re looking at the bookies. We’re using the lines from Sportsbook.ag, which we’re completely unaffiliated with, and adding our own analysis (and wishful thinking) to the mix. Here are the lines that may decide your Oscar pool this year in advance of Sunday's 89th Academy Awards in Los Angeles.
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Negga, Loving
Vegas Favorite: Stone (1/8), who, more than any other of the nominees for La La Land, deserves her award. She has a true show-stopper of a song in the film and (aside from being excellent, of course) appeals to the clip-oriented world of the Academy. Stone is also the only actress present from a Best Picture nominee, and if La La Land starts picking up awards early on We’d be wary of betting anybody else. Momentum means something, but not everything.
Dark Horse: Huppert or Streep. Normally, We’d say Portman (5/1), given that she’s both a past winner and portraying a beloved political and style icon, but the Academy has really shied away from the “impression” awards, at least for the Best Actress nominees (it also doesn’t help that the movie didn’t receive a single nomination elsewhere). Last was Streep (50/1) in 2011, who won that award in more of a gesture of goodwill than in actual honor of her work in The Iron Lady, and if anybody’s going to win for a performance based on a real person, it’s her. Florence Foster Jenkins is a big hit amongst older audiences, and it might appeal to the Academy’s older members. Huppert (10/1) also has been touted as a potential sleeper win, but Elle is a super-dee-duperty controversial film, though she did win big at Cannes.
In a Perfect World: Amy Adams would have been nominated for Arrival. Other than that, Stone.
