Editor’s Note: Before we begin, we’d just like to specify that this article is for entertainment purposes only. Like most things, gambling should be enjoyed responsibly, and if you or a loved one has a gambling problem, there are resources available for you, including the National Problem Gambling Helpline, which can be reached at 1-800-522-4700 at any time of day.
As expected, Oppenheimer swept most of the categories in which it was nominated at the Academy Awards last year. It’s been a boring couple of years for the Oscars, honestly. Two favorites walked home with all the hardware they expected, and it’s been especially dry if you like to play in an Oscar Pool or submit moronic, degenerate bets to your preferred online sportsbook. There were two main upsets, really: Emma Stone beating out Lily Gladstone (which we called!) and The Boy and the Heron winning Best Animated Feature (which we also called!). So, yeah, we had a pretty good year last year. I don’t expect we will this year, though.
Yes, folks, it has happened once again: A competitive Oscar race. The two presumptive favorites – Emilia Perez and The Brutalist – got hit with some serious fucking controversy, each defined by… tech? There was a massive online backlash to the former from people who, contrary to the assumption of Mexico Expert Jacques Audiard, have lived or currently live in Mexico, as well as Karla Sofia Gascon’s ill-advised tweets from a few years ago, which somehow escaped Netflix’s vetting protocols. The Brutalist, on the other hand, happily embraced AI to enhance its actors’ Hungarian accents (and so did Audiard in Emilia Perez, when it came to blending vocals for some of the songs), coming barely a year after the entire industry ground to a halt from strikes all about these very issues. Perhaps disclosing this up front might have added some salve to the wounds, but it took an interview with the editor in order for the information to hit the headlines. Whoops!
But you know the old saying: When God closes a door, he opens a window for gamblers who know that the true purpose of the Oscars is goofy, horserace-like betting. For people like you.
Cue the fuckin’ music:
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Welcome, once again, to Vanyaland‘s annual Oscar Gambling Column, where I, your degenerate film editor, take stock of the odds for each topline award category (sorry, Production Design and Sound and so on, but the article would be 8,000 words long) and then put the nominees into three categories. We’re gonna change our category naming conventions a little bit this year, just for the sake of clarity. As always, favorites go in – duh — The Favorite, but we’re calling the truly degenerate “please take my money, oh gracious sportsbook” plays Blunderdogs, and proper “hey, this might actually hit” underdogs are Dawgs, because they got that dawg in them. You can use this guide to help you make your pool picks or straight bets, but don’t blame me if you decide to stake everything on Walter Salles’ chance at award season immortality. These aren’t recommendations, they’re just for fun.
As always, the odds I’m using come from DraftKings because they’re Massholes just like the VL crew. The numbers are current as of February 26 — please, please triple-check to make sure the lines haven’t moved before putting down any dough. Per usual, our odds are American (Canadian Odds are just too polite), which means we’re using stable numbers instead of European odds (two-to-one, etc.).
These are nice round numbers, and here’s an example: If, say, The Brutalist 2: Post-Modern Boogaloo is at -2000 odds, that minus symbol means it’s a favorite: You’d have to put $2000 down to win $100. You ain’t riskin’ shit, so you ain’t making that dough. If, however, Brady Corbet returns to form, the movie sucks, and somehow it gets a nod at +25000 odds, well, that’s a high-risk but high-reward bet: Putting down $100 would win you $25000. But before you take out that second mortgage remember that you are likely going to lose this money.
Before we start filling out our slips, here’s our invocation, delivered by the Patron Saint of Oscar Gambling, Oscar Gamble:
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The 97th Academy Awards will take place this Sunday (March 2) at 8 p.m. EST, and, as always, you can watch the broadcast on ABC.
Now, let’s get crackin’:
Best Music (Original Score)
The Favorite: This is what happens when the Academy ignores two great Reznor/Ross scores: You getThe Brutalist (-400).
Blunderdogs: Conclave (+800), Wicked (+3500), The Wild Robot (+400). There’s a theoretical case for Wicked here, but it’s not really much of an “original” score.
Dawgs: Emilia Perez (+1600), which really only depends on what your definition of “original score” is, given that you’re not typically supposed to include all of those “original” songs in there. But yeah, get ready for that Captains Of Industry Sound to take home the hardware.
Best Music (Original Song)
The Favorite: “El Mal” (Emilia Perez ,-310). This feels fair.
Blunderdogs: Here are the other nominees: “Like a Bird” (Sing Sing, +2000), “Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late, +800), “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight, +400). Recognize any of them?
Dawgs: If one were to hedge, choosing “Mi Camino” (Emilia Perez, +800) might not be a bad move. But, yeah, this is kind of a dull category without multi-plat event records like Barbie’s in there.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Favorite: Conclave (-1000). Everybody loves Conclave. Don’t risk it.
Blunderdogs: Sing Sing (+2200), A Complete Unknown (+2000), Emilia Perez (+1000), Nickel Boys (+750). Sing Sing has an incredible screenplay supporting its incredible performances, but the Academy probably thinks it’s all improv. The rest were either included in screener packages or gonna get that boomer nostalgia vote that Inside Llewellyn Davis apparently didn’t get a chance to court. What the hell was up with that? That movie’s a fucking masterpiece.
Dawgs: This is Conclave’s to lose. Just stay away.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Favorite: Anora (-250). Fair.
Blunderdogs: September 5(+3500), The Brutalist (+1400). The former came out too late to matter, and The Brutalist isn’t particularly flashy, although it has some decently well-written moments (see: Best Supporting Actor).
Dawgs: A Real Pain (+500) definitely has what the Academy would consider that Dawg in it, given that it’s a witty and neurotic comedy with some occasional moments of ham-fisted profundity, but I think the real dark horse here is The Substance (+300). This would be a pretty shocking departure for the Academy, but it’s one well-earned.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Favorite: The Wild Robot (-340), which I’m personally ok with.
Blunderdogs: Memoir of a Snail (+3500), Inside Out 2 (+2000), and Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (+1600) are either too esoteric or sequels, which aren’t the best challengers against something like Wild Robot. I don’t think the Pixar magic will hold, and W&G seems like a day-and-date Netflix title to most.
Dawgs: Flow (+225) is everything Memoir of a Snail wishes it could be: It’s found a remarkable home audience through Max, and it’s genuinely beloved by a lot of those viewers. Honestly, this is a category in which a Streisand-Hepburn tie wouldn’t be too bad. They both deserve it!
Best International Feature Film
The Favorite: I’m Still Here (-200), which still remains an absolute mystery to most people even vaguely interested in the Oscar race. Talk about some A+ politicking on the part of those press agents.
Blunderdogs: The Secret of the Sacred Fig (+1600), The Girl with the Needle (+5000), Flow (+2500). I’m Still Here has that name-brand recognition the others don’t, and Flow’s already going to walk away with another category.
Dawgs: Emilia Perez (+140). If this movie is going to win anything outside of the music and Supporting Actress, it’ll be here. I doubt it will happen, but Netflix has put in a shitload of time and money into trying to lock in as many categories as it can, and this is where the competition is weakest.
Best Supporting Actor
The Favorite: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain, -3500). Roman’s most likely gonna win it, so congrats to the Culkins.
Blunderdogs: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown, +1100) has burned way too many bridges, Yura Borisov (Anora, +1800) is outshined by Mikey Madison, and Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice, +2000) just can’t compete with Roman. Sorry, Kendall.
Dawgs: If there’s one acting nod from The Brutalist that was untainted by any of the AI controversy, it’s Guy Pearce’s (The Brutalist, +2000), which was a tour-de-force performance. Sure, his arc might not resolve that well, but that man steals every second of shared screentime when he’s on there. So, consider this a long-shot bet, but don’t be surprised if it happens.
Best Supporting Actress
The Favorite: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez, -2500). Saldana’s got the sympathy vote for everything she’s gone through this season with the behind-the-scenes chaos at Netflix, and basically shouldn’t have even been in this category. Who knows, man.
Blunderdogs: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist, +1400), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave, +2000), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown, +2500). Better options elsewhere for these movies, and Netflix is going to triple down on making sure they take home this one.
Dawgs: That is, unless Ariana Grande (Wicked, +800) stans totally sabotage this and turn it into the Teen Choice Awards. Just replace the statue with a giant surfboard, and she’s golden. Really, though, if Wicked wins anything, it’s most likely going to be right here. Unlikely, but worth a consideration, given the Academy’s desire to bring YOUTHFUL ENERGY to the body of voters.
Best Actor
The Favorite: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist, -230). A few months ago, he would have been -3500. That’s what happens when you use AI to help you with your accents.
Blunderdogs: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice, +3500) got the nod for the wrong movie, and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing, +3500) was just too damn real for these silly awards.
Dawgs: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave, +1600) is always a threat, and if Conclave starts sweeping shit, there’ll be some real suspense here, but Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown, +150) is perhaps the single-best underdog in the entire field. I have no idea why he’s not favored at the moment: His press tour has been incredible, he’s got that energy, he’s endeared himself to younger voters, and, importantly, he did his own singing. I find it hard to believe that any awards body comprised of industry people who just went on strike because of issues exactly like this would just hurl hardware at a performance assisted by AI, but who knows? People love a comeback story.
Also, shout out to Daniel Craig. He should be here.
Best Actress
The Favorite: Demi Moore (The Substance, -250). This feels right.
Blunderdogs: Fernanada Torres (I’m Still Here, +1400) should be honored that she got nominated, Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, +3500) suffers from “This ain’t the Tonys” syndrome, and Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez, +3500) had a flameout for the ages. It’s been absolutely absurd to see this collapse and the subsequent studio infighting happen, almost like what would have happened if Don’t Worry Darling got nods a few years back. Gascon’s basically the 2011 Red Sox if they’d shitposted their way through the end of the season.
Dawgs: How great is it that Mikey Madison (Anora, +165) got nominated? It’s fucking awesome that two legit indies are leading the field here, and it’s utterly incredible that none of these nominees are mere make-up assisted impersonation acts. Again, Hepburn-Streisand. We hope they tie.
Best Director
The Favorite: I can’t believe I’m writing this, but Sean Baker (Anora, -175).
Blunderdogs: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez, +2000), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown, +2500). Controversy sank the former, the latter is just happy to be here.
Dawgs: I can’t overstress how much AI hurt Brady Corbet (The Brutalist, +135), because by the end of January, it looked like he was going to sweep this category. I personally don’t think he’s a great option, given that Baker’s momentum is swirling, but if there’s one long-shot option to play, it’d be Coralie Fargeat (The Substance, +2500). This would be the single best thing to happen to MUBI, and it would be a shocker to A24 and NEON. Let’s open up the space and will this shit to happen through manifestation. I hear you can get copies of The Secret for a penny these days.
Best Picture
The Favorite: Again, can’t believe I’m writing this: Anora (-200). If only Red Rocket had won the Palme…
Blunderdogs: A Complete Unknown (+4000), Wicked (+5000), Emilia Perez (+6500), Dune: Part Two (+10000), Nickel Boys (+10000), I’m Still Here (+10000). All nominees, and no one can ever take that away from them.
Dawgs: Conclave (+225) would benefit from the elder Academy voters coming to its aid (presumably having seized the dayroom television at their nursing homes in a near-revolutionary act), and maybe The Brutalist (+600) will siphon votes away from Anora. It feels like the one possible scenario even accounting for all that momentum. Corbet’s film, on the other hand, is a bad play – I bet he wishes that the Oscars came the week after the Golden Globes – but the oddsmakers are still giving it props.
I personally think this is Anora’s to lose, but I can’t help but think that The Substance (+10000), at those odds, is a bargain. My reasoning is this: A younger voting body has broken tradition each year after CODA won, and a world in which Everything Everywhere All at Once is a locked-in favorite is one where a horror movie can win Best Picture. Also, it made money, which is something you can’t say about some of the other favorites. Again, long-shot play, but it’s a fascinating idea to consider.