Editor’s Note: Before we begin, we’d just like to specify that this article is for entertainment purposes only. Like most things, gambling should be enjoyed responsibly, and if you or a loved one has a gambling problem, there are resources for available you, including the National Problem Gambling Helpline, which can be reached at 1-800-522-4700 at any time of day.
How the hell do you follow up last year’s Oscars? You had the first full acknowledgment of the streaming era, with CODA taking home the top prize, you had emotional wins from a variety of different nominees, and you also had one of those “Oscar Moments,” but solely at the expense of poor Chris Rock. It still blows my mind that Will Smith was able to give a teary speech after what he did, but it seems “If it bleeds, it leads” applies to both Chris Rock’s nose and awards telecasting. Yes, I’m aware that the dude didn’t actually draw blood, but the joke was funny, and I stand by it. A lot of the bullshit from last year is still present – most of the important categories that reflect the day-to-day business of movie-making are shunted off to prerecorded ceremonies, after all – but at least we only have one host this time around. That man is Jimmy Kimmel, who will likely do some stupid social media stunts while also trying his best to fend off every reporter wanting to ask him about last year’s ceremony (and based on a cursory Googling, he’s failed).
But what’s missing from this Oscar season is… rage? For the 95th Academy Awards this Sunday (March 12), Everybody pretty much likes the favorite, Everything Everywhere All At Once, unless you’re the kind of jaded contrarian who is mad that their crustpunk ex-partner, current Letterboxd-using friend group, and old and moldy parents seem to all like the same movie. That’s not to say that those people might not have a point or are, in fact, just normal-ass people with a heterodox opinion (I’m ribbing you with love, y’all), but it does mean that the anger has almost been exclusively reserved for an out-of-left-field Best Actress nomination. Compared to the apocalyptic ravings one had at the prospect of a Three Billboards or Green Book or 1917 win, this is practically the most docile the debate has been in years. But who knows?
The sportsbooks might, and with that said:
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Welcome to the 2023 Oscar Gambling column. Looking back on the picks from last year, I’d say I did a pretty decent job – CODA did win, after all – and once again, we’ll be using Draftkings‘ odds (at least the ones listed as of March 8). They’re local, nice, and celebrating the fact that all of us degenerates can, starting on March 10, bet without having to drive to the New Hampshire state line and sit at some gas station while trying to figure out ways to lose even more money. Again, we’re not affiliated with them in any way, and you should check whether or not you can bet online where you’re at before consulting this guide, and it’s important to note that this is all just for fun and I’m not telling you to do shit. Thou will do what thou wilt, after all. Per usual, the nominees in each category have been separated into three categories: Certified favorites (under – you guessed it – “The Favorite” header), genuine Hail Marys and totally inviable prospects (under the “They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid” header) and underdogs with upset potential (under the “So You’re Saying There’s a Chance” header).
Once again, here’s our explainer for the odds format we’ll be using throughout, American odds. If you see a “-” next to a number, that means it’s a favorite, and the number following it is the amount of money that you’d have to bet in order to win $100. So, if you’re thinking of betting on Ke Huy Quan, you better be willing to shell out $5,000 in order to make a paltry hundo. A “+” next to a number means it’s an underdog, and the number after it is is the amount you’d win with a $100 bet. This means if you really, really like Triangle of Sadness‘ chances at Best Picture, you decide to put $100 down on it, and somehow the entire Academy has been lobotomized and votes for it, you stand to win a cool $20,000 on that wager. Once again, though: Long-shot bets are a very fun way to waste your money, not an investment strategy. If you’re gonna go Bozo Mode, though, maybe bet something smaller, and try to just be a little less reckless.
As always, we have the Patron Saint of Oscar Gambling, Oscar Gamble, to provide some words of hope and meaning to all of us in this trying time:
The 95th Academy Awards will air March 12 on ABC at 8 p.m. EST.
Best Visual Effects
The Favorite: Avatar: The Way of Water (-2500), which is one of those lockable favorites that you just know is gonna win and you’re going to feel really dumb for even considering any other choice here.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1200) had subpar visual effects compared to the first one, and, given that this category is already on lockdown for them, Disney’s spending all their time and money on another category this year. All Quiet on the Western Front (+2000) is a movie that pretty much no one has seen, so who knows how it actually looks. The Batman (+3500) is likely too far-out to compete, and doesn’t really benefit from the same sort of superhero pump that your average Marvel movie gets in this category, so no dice.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: If there’s one pick with upset potential here, it’s probably Top Gun: Maverick (+1000), which has sublime and more subtle effects work compared to Jim Cameron’s technicolor paradise, and never doubt the ornery nature of Academy voters. If they feel the need to acknowledge Tom Cruise’s speed, it’ll probably be here.
Best Original Score
The Favorite: Babylon (-225), which is a great movie that features a good score. Bite me, cowards.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: You can say a lot of things about Everything Everywhere All At Once (+2800) and The Banshees of Insherin (+2800), but “They had Oscar-worthy scores!” isn’t one of them.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: Again with the random Netflix pick. For whatever reason, All Quiet on the Western Front (+175) is favored high enough for one not to outright dismiss it, but then again, it’s Schrodinger’s score: somehow worthy of accolades but not worthy of a watch. My personal underdog would be The Fabelmans (+1000), which is a sentimental pick: John Williams is going to retire some day, and the Academy only has so many times left to heap justly-deserved accolades on him before he hangs up his coat-and-tails and sheathes his baton.
Best Original Song
The Favorite: “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR (-500), is proof that you don’t actually need Danny Boyle to get western cinephiles to pretend that they cared much about Bollywood before their favorite film Twitter personality started tweeting about it (in case you aren’t aware, this is a joke). In all seriousness, it’s good that Hollywood’s started acknowledging film industries in other parts of the world, and this film and song are both bangers.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: There’s maybe a chance that “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All At Once (+4000) squeaks in if it’s a good night for A24, but I’m thinking voters are gonna save their love for that film for the top categories. On the other hand, “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (+5000) is one of those tracks that just gets added on there to genuinely confound anybody who pays attention to these things, because I had to double-and-triple check that this was a real movie and not a bug on the App.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+400) and “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (+600) both have something that RRR doesn’t, and that’s stateside pop culture power. Both are by famous homegrown stars, and, importantly, they’re recognizable names with fanbases that might overtake some measure of objectivity (whatever that means) in the minds of voters.
Best Original Screenplay
The Favorite: Everything Everywhere All at Once (-150), which is the weakest lead that any EEAAO nomination has at the time of this writing. The “Good Night” theorem holds here, and if Daniels win for this, it probably spells trouble for any other nominee.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Unless the Academy somehow has fallen in love with shitty faux-progressive “comedy,” Triangle of Sadness (+3500) is pretty much D.O.A., and despite Tony Kushner and the Beard himself working on the script for The Fabelmans (+2500), it’s just sort of lost up in the sweep of things.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: If the voters are going to choose a category to reward Martin McDonagh for making a movie in Ireland again, this is probably the category. Banshees of Inisherin (+110) is a solid underdog, and the legions of voters in other organizations who have heaped praise upon it should give you an idea of just how strong it is, which is a reflection of the strong critical base it’s had over the course of awards-season voting by various critical bodies. But I kind of like Tar (+2000) as a long-shot upset, because Field wrote the hell out of that movie and a compelling and nearly out-of-nowhere return is about as attractive to the Academy as it is to your average WWE fan when, say, Barry Horowitz shows up at the Royal Rumble as a mid-card entrant.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Favorite: Women Talking (-250), which boasts a literary pedigree, a good cast, and the requisite amount of political consciousness that the Academy loves to show off. Then again, it’s practically a Socratic dialogue that hits all of the appropriate talking points, which means its both obvious enough to be attractive as a candidate here and enough of a message to send to the plebs at home. I’m shocked it’s not higher up.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Living (+2500), which somehow was released in theaters in the past year without anybody hearing about it, and Top Gun: Maverick (+2500), which was probably nominated because it answered the question of “How do you write a sequel to Top Gun and not have it suck?”
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: There’s All Quiet on the Western Front (+160) once again, which is still very funny when put up against what most might have assumed was the lock compared to everything else in this category. Based on awards-season screener packages alone, one would think that Glass Onion (+2000), with its t-shirts and canned non-alcoholic Kombucha sent across the world to voters and critics everywhere, would be a bigger favorite than one that was sent in a package with seven other DVDs for films that were totally ignored by the Academy. But there’s a certain element of nostalgia for the glory days of Hollywood in its nominations – after all, Lewis Millstone did win for his adaptation of that novel almost 90 years ago – and that might be more attractive to the voting base, no matter the amount of branded caps with “A Rian Johnson Whodunnit” scrawled across the face of the snapback that were sent out.
Best Animated Film
The Favorite: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (-3500), which is perhaps the only Netflix publicity campaign that really paid off this year. It’s from a director that everybody likes enough for him to get nominated for a really shitty remake last year, and it’s an impressive technical depiction of a classic fairy tale.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (+1400) has the branding, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (+1600) has the A24 backing, The Sea Beast (+2800) was a decently-sized Netflix hit, but they all have one problem: They’re going up against Del Toro and…
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: Pixar. Disney might have pissed off distributors once again with Turning Red (+1800) being shunted off onto Disney+ in what might have been the final pandemic-era panic move, but it’s a Pixar movie, and they own this category. So I’m thinking if there’s going to be an upset (which there most likely won’t be), it’ll come from the House of Mouse.
Best Supporting Actress
The Favorite: It’s genuinely surprising to me that Angela Bassett’s performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+125) has gotten as much buzz as it has, but she rocks, so it’s hard not to see why the Academy would go out of its way to honor her, especially with the full-faith-and-credit of the Mighty Marvel Machine backing her up. That said, this is a particularly weak favorite, which feels typical in the Supporting categories nowadays.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: There’s gotta be some losers, after all, and Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once (+2500) and Hong Chau The Whale, +4000 had the misfortune of being stuck behind other nominated actors who sucked up all the time and resources and whatnot.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: Now here’s where things get interesting: people love Jamie Lee Curtis, and her work in Everything Everywhere All At Once (+150) has gained a surprising amount of awards traction in the last few months, despite being a little less vivid compared to other members of the cast. Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin (+150), playing straight man to an entire cast of goofballs in that film, is another decent choice, though I think her chances are a bit inflated comparatively, though critics have responded well to her performance. Who knows, though. These categories are always a mess.
Best Supporting Actor
The Favorite: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once (-5000), which is the one award that this film is nominated for (and is all but sure to win) that even the people who fucking hate EEAAO can probably feel good about. Dude is a king, and it’s lovely to see him finally at this mountaintop.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Brendan Gleeson (+1600) and Barry Keoghan (+1400), Banshees of Inisherin, Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (+3500), and Bryan Tyree Henry, Causeway (+4000). Sorry, guys.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: Nobody. Stay away. If you find yourself even considering this category, please reach out to someone you love and tell them that you need help.
Best Actress
The Favorite: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once (-140). The last month of awards ceremonies have definitely placed her in the lead, though there’s enough shakiness and uncertainty that she’s not as far ahead as one might have thought.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (+2800), Ana de Armas, Blonde (+5000). Both fabulous performances, both caught up in as background in other people’s stories.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: If there was a proper favorite circa January 2021, it was probably Cate Blanchett for her work in Tar (+100) – hell, I even assumed it outright when writing about it for our best of 2022 list – but it’s funny how things change. That respect is still present in the odds, though, and she has a real shot. On the other hand, if you’re gonna go bozo mode, Andrea Riseborough’s improbable nod for her work in To Leslie (+2500) has all the makings of an out-of-left-field upset: it’s a movie that no one has seen, has acquired a great deal of controversy ever since it was announced, and has been one of the most interesting and compelling stories in this year’s award season. If anything, I’d say those odds are pretty high, because the Academy loves an Oscar moment, and short of taking away Faye Dunaway’s reading glasses again, this is the best possible venue for it.
Best Actor
The Favorite: Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-165), who is proof positive that being a good dude who people really like is genuinely very important in all aspects of life. You can star in a shitty movie and be genuinely moving, and people will overlook every single thing about that movie because you’re the only honest bit about it. It’s telling that voters pretty much wholesale rejected The Whale on any other front, and if this has to be his honorary Oscar, so be it.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Paul Mescal, Aftersun (+5000), Bill Nighy, Living (+6500), who both turned in swell performances that, again, are stuck behind bigger ones
.So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: Now here’s an interesting category shake-up: out of all the categories listed this year, Austin Butler’s Elvis (+120) performance is the only one that seems like typical modern-day Oscar bait. It’s a well-rendered and shockingly compelling impersonation (and given that Baz Lurhmann directed the hell out of the film, it doesn’t feel like typical Oscar fodder), and would be in any other year where a glut of makeup-laden biopic stars would steal the show. But there’s also Colin Farrell in Banshees of Inisherin (+1200), beloved by the critics, who remains sort of a third option should the Academy not like The Whale‘s ceaseless nihilism and not particularly care for awarding an impression once again.
Best Director
The Favorite: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once (-1200), whose odds are surprisingly low here.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: Todd Field and Martin McDonaugh are better bets in Original Screenplay for Tar (+2000) and Banshees of Inisherin, respectively, and Ruben Ostlund, for Triangle of Sadness (+5000), is once again, just honored to be here. See, winning the Palme for your two worst movies actually can pay off!
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: The only persona capable of stopping the A24 train at this point is Steven Spielberg, but The Fabelmans (+600) might not be the film they want to award another honorary Oscar for. See, the dude’s already won, and everybody loves him, and if you really want to do that big ol’ modern rebrand after God knows how many years of bad press you’ve received for your retrograde ways, you probably won’t vote for Stevie. Besides, this is the category where they’ll show appreciation for talent, before given Best Picture to something totally different.
Best Picture
The Favorite: Everything Everywhere All At Once (-1100), which feels right.
They Can’t All Be Winners, Kid: See, there’s honestly not that much here: for The Fabelmans (+3000), Tar (+5000), Elvis (+6500), Triangle of Sadness (+20000), and Women Talking (+20000), I can’t even really come up with compelling narratives as to why they might win.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance: Now, we’re going to go descending here, from “decent underdog” to “lol fuck it YOLO.” All Quiet on the Western Front (+1400) is still particularly funny here, given it might just be Hollywood telling Netflix to chill the fuck out and maybe they’ll give them a stupid Oscar. Banshees of Inisherin (+1400) is the vaguely-arthouse option and has the backing of the critical establishment. More on Top Gun: Maverick (+1600) in a minute. And Avatar: The Way of Water (+10000), at those numbers, is a perfect “Bet a dollar, win a thousand” candidate for those absolutely in need of draining their sportsbook balance before their spouse checks their phone.
But if there’s a legitimate underdog here that might come out of absolutely nowhere to stun everybody, hideously upset certain segments of the Internet, and perhaps accurately reflect the preferences of the populist wellspring that the Academy has hoped to tap into in various stupid ways over the years (“The Flash Enters The Speed Force,” anyone?), I’d say it’s Maverick. It’s a walking and talking tribute to the Last Real Movie Star and their best chance to give him a statuette. It’s a rip-roaring populist action film with legit artistic bona fides. And, importantly, it’s the bellwether that all of the movie business was going to survive the pandemic, damaged yet still capable of drawing audiences. EEAAO was that for arthouses, but Maverick was that film for every theater. It’s a sentimental pick, but if the Academy has learned a lesson since 2020, it’s that the sentimental picks work: they get press, they get good vibes, and they establish relevance, which is capital that the Oscars don’t have as often as they’d hope. Unless they decide to partner with Dana White and have Bette Midler and Meryl Streep compete in Russian-style slapfighting on stage, this might be their best way forward. On the other hand, a lot of the same can be said about EEAAO, and the answer will ultimately depend, once again, on ranked-choice voting. So, who knows. Maybe Netflix will swoop in, after all, and claim that top prize. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
The 95th Academy Awards will air March 12 on ABC at 8 p.m. EST.