It's that time again, everyone: the 91st Academy Awards are upon us, and they'll take place on Sunday (February 24) at 8 p.m., airing, once again, on ABC. This has been a particularly bad year for the awards show, what with the Academy attempting to shear time off the broadcast or the total and utter failure on the behalf of the Academy to find a host for the show, so it's becoming clearer and clear that the purpose of the Oscars is less about honoring artistry and way more about ratings and, you guessed it, money. So let's treat this awards ceremony with the respect it deserves -- which is to say not very much if those who put it on this little for it -- and do a deep dive into the gambling prospects for this year's Oscars.
We've taken our odds from bwin, a U.K.-based online sportsbook, and they're just meant, mainly, to read the field, though we have included some advice if you'd like to place some bets. Don't try and do this at your local casino, as most casinos throughout the country are prohibited from gambling on non-sports events, especially those in Nevada (we're willing to wager that this will change as gambling laws become more liberal nationwide). We've got most of the major categories here (though a few we've left off simply because they're not as interesting gambling-wise), and we were a bit surprised by the odds here. It's not too far removed from joining your office Oscar pool, and you can win categories without having to worry about Dave, who somehow has seen all of the shorts, from totally wrecking the curve.
A quick explanation of the numbers: They're presented in what's called "American Odds," where the favorite is represented by a negative number and the underdogs are represented by positive (without any impact by a point spread), which is a bit weird if you haven't bet on anything before. It's very easy to understand, though: a negative number represents how much money you would have to bet in order to win $100, and a positive represents how much you would win on a $100 bet. So when bwin says that Spider-Verse is -2000 to win the Best Animated Feature Film Oscar, that means you'd have to bet two grand in order to win a cool Benjamin. If Isle of Dogs were to upset in that category and you bet $100 on it, you'd win $1200. The reason they feel comfortable offering those odds is that it's probably not going to, so always keep that in mind.
Hell, even if you don't bet, sportsbooks are a solid predictor of what's going to go down on Sunday night, given that those books really don't like to lose money. And with that, we'll head to the categories after a word from the patron saint of Oscar gambling, Oscar Gamble:
Here are the nominees:
Best Foreign Language Film
The Favorite: Roma (-2000)
The Contenders: Cold War (+900)
The Long Shots: Shoplifters (+2000), Capernaum (+3300), Never Look Away (+5000)
Advice: Look, we’re not going to try and convince you to bet on Cold War here. Just look at Roma’s odds! That’s nothing to scratch your nose at, and they’re put that high to specifically prevent you from doing so. Bwin is actively telling you to stay the fuck away from this category. But let’s say you buy into the anti-Netflix take that plenty of Academy voters do have, and let’s say you also really like black and white movies. Maybe you like preserving the theatrical experience as well, and you like being honest about how many people watch your highly-touted releases. Why wouldn’t you vote for Cold War? It’s a damn good movie, and there’s no shame in bucking that trend (though you might have only watched it because it was only 90 minutes instead of Roma’s 2+ hour runtime). It’s a risky bet, but it’s one that might pay off really well if the night really doesn’t go Reed Hastings’ way, and this is a super-early bellwether for that.
