Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (+1600)
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-2000)
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (+3300)
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (+800)
Meryl Streep, The Post (+5000)
Will Win: The Unstoppable Francis McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri. As soon as the first trailer for this film dropped, the Oscar race for Best Actress ended for most pundits. She’s by far the best part of that particular movie, and Lord knows we’d love to shower her with awards for several decades’ worth of great performances, but we hate this movie enough to try and will something else into existence with our hard-earned dollars.
Should Win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water. Look, we love Saoirse Ronan as much as anybody else, especially with regards to her work in Lady Bird and how she was robbed by Ruby Dee back in 2007 (really, could you imagine another young actress putting in the work she does in Atonement?), but for innumerable reasons, Hawkins should win this award. Look, we know we mentioned the “most” rule earlier, but it actually holds true in this instance. Performing an entire role in Sign Language is one thing, but being believably attracted to a fish-man in a tender and loving way? We’d like to see these nominees try. Especially you, Streep.
Should Have Been Nominated: Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread. It’s very, very rare that someone could steal a film away from an actor like Daniel Day-Lewis, but she did just that.
Dark Horses: Again, it’s McDormand’s award to lose, but we like Ronan’s and Hawkins’ chances at the statue despite it. Streep won’t win it because The Post ain’t moving anybody to tears or anything, and Robbie won’t win because of the backlash that I, Tonya has received from both the reviewing press and those who couldn’t stomach the “redemption” of Tonya Harding in the media. Again, these four categories are nearly locked as far as Vegas is concerned, so we’d just skip this (or potentially check it off on your ballot).
