The Oscars ceremony is the rare annual event that brings together film nerds, fashionistas, and degenerate gamblers. Much like the Super Bowl and presidential elections, it’s super helpful to look at betting markets when trying to figure out who will win a given competition. While FiveThirtyEight may be looking at other ceremonies to guess at a winner, we’re looking at the bookies. We’re using the lines from Sportsbook.ag, which we’re completely unaffiliated with, and adding our own analysis (and wishful thinking) to the mix. Here are the lines that may decide your Oscar pool this year in advance of Sunday's 89th Academy Awards in Los Angeles.
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Vegas Favorite: Affleck (5/9), who has been everyone’s pick since the film first screened at Sundance last year. Make no mistake, Affleck’s performance is absolutely wonderful, and we’re sure the Academy feels like they have egg on their face from 2007, where they failed to honor him for his spectacular performance in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. However, I feel like this is the category where we’re most likely to get an out-and-out upset.
Dark Horse: Denzel Washington (7/5). Affleck’s recent scandals may have kneecapped his chances at the statue, and Washington is a very tantalizing pick for many reasons (the other nominees aren’t much of a threat at all). He’s really great with August Wilson’s dialogue, and it helps that his direction actually manages to capture the kind of verbal flow that a really great production of that has. He’s also a prior winner, which has more standing than you might think, and offers the chance for the Academy to put Washington on a pedestal with other greats. Make no mistake, this award is Affleck’s to lose, but his chances aren’t nearly as good as you might think.
In a Perfect World: If we’re going solely on performance, Affleck. If we’re going by performance and politics, Washington. If we’re going on singing, Ryan Gosling.
