Oscars: Who will win, who should win, and who should’ve been nominated


Well, after last year's ceremony, this year's Oscars feels positively boring, even if the Best Picture field is wide open. Still, you have Oscar pools to win and money to lose, and we're back with our Vegas-assisted predictions for the evening's events (and in case you need a reminder, the Oscars will be airing on ABC this Sunday, March 4, at 8 p.m. Boston time).

We're using betting lines from bwin (which, once again, we are totally unaffiliated with) as of Monday, February 26. So, get your wallets and your pencils ready, folks, and hold on for a crazy ride. And, as always, the only awards that matter are the ones you choose for yourself. No Hollywood voting organization can ever tell you what to like.

Now, on to the major categories:

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Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name (+10000)
Darkest Hour (+10000)
Dunkirk (+3300)
Get Out (+2000)
Lady Bird (+1200)
Phantom Thread (+10000)
The Post (+10000)
The Shape of Water (+125)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-133)

Will Win: Hmmm. It’s not that certain!

Should Win: Even though Call Me By Your Name was the best movie we saw last year, we have to go with Get Out, just because how seismic of a shift that would be in Oscar culture. There were other films on this list that placed hire on our top 10 list, of course, but how often is it that a Horror movie is nominated for Best Picture? And how often do the damn solid underdogs (you know, the ones that have more to say about the subject of the frontrunner than the frontrunner itself does) actually win these awards? It’s the ’82-’83 Jimmy V.-led Wolfpack, and the Oscars are the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. What a joy it’d be to watch Jordan Peele cut down that net.


Should Have Been Nominated: The Florida Project. Controversial ending aside, it’s a goddamn tragedy that this film wasn’t nominated for nearly anything. You have the potential to nominate 10 movies, guys. Just do it next time.

Dark Horses: Three Billboards is the shakiest favorite out of all the major categories, so it’s basically a betting man’s paradise in this, the greatest of all categories. Basically, anything that’s not in the tens of thousands is a decent bet here, and if you’re willing to believe the scuttlebutt going around Hollywood these days, it’s a toss-up between Dunkirk and Get Out. And that is great for you, the person who’s irresponsibly gambling on the results of award shows or the person who is playing in some sort of fun Oscar pool with your friends and colleagues, as both are considerable underdogs. So we’d say that you should choose one of those two, and pray that all the rumors are true.

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